Uranium coverage gap
Nuclear utilities publish, once a year, how much uranium they still need to buy: the US via EIA's Uranium Marketing Annual (Form EIA-858), the EU via the Euratom Supply Agency's annual report. This page tracks both — forward unfilled requirements, contracted coverage, and the prices utilities actually paid — the demand side of the uranium thesis, from official filings rather than dealer indications.
US unfilled requirements, 2025–2034
184.2 Mlb
not yet under contract
US avg purchase price, 2024
$52.71/lb
all deliveries, weighted
US contracts signed in 2024
$86.2/lb
21 new contracts
EU MAC-3 new-multiannual, 2025
$69.01/lb
contracts priced in last 3 yrs
EU max coverage, 2034
36%
of net requirements
US utilities: contracted supply vs unfilled requirements
RealMaximum deliveries already under contract (stacked with unfilled market requirements = maximum anticipated requirements, Mlb U₃O₈e) and the contracted-coverage rate. Final year partly withheld (“W”) by EIA to avoid disclosure of individual responses.
EU utilities: contractual coverage of net uranium requirements
RealNet reactor requirements (tU, bars) with the share already covered by signed contracts — maximum and minimum contracted deliveries ÷ net requirements (%, lines).
What utilities actually paid: US vs EU delivered prices ($/lb U₃O₈)
RealWeighted-average prices of uranium delivered to utilities, by delivery year — the realized cost of fuel, not a quoted spot screen. ESA calculated no EU spot index for 2020–2022 (fewer than three transactions); the gap is real, not missing data.
US unfilled requirements: how the curve moved between report vintages
RealEach vintage surveys a rolling 10-year window, so the two curves cover slightly different year ranges; zeros at the window edges are as published by EIA. Thousand pounds U₃O₈ equivalent.
| Delivery year | Annual (Dec 31, 2023) | Cumulative (Dec 31, 2023) | Annual (Dec 31, 2024) | Cumulative (Dec 31, 2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2,334 | 2,334 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 2,609 | 4,943 | 1,924 | 1,924 |
| 2026 | 4,478 | 9,421 | 3,186 | 5,109 |
| 2027 | 8,542 | 17,963 | 3,399 | 8,509 |
| 2028 | 17,253 | 35,216 | 11,522 | 20,031 |
| 2029 | 15,333 | 50,549 | 11,942 | 31,973 |
| 2030 | 21,520 | 72,069 | 20,473 | 52,446 |
| 2031 | 36,028 | 108,098 | 32,600 | 85,046 |
| 2032 | 34,103 | 142,201 | 33,754 | 118,799 |
| 2033 | 41,906 | 184,107 | 38,996 | 157,795 |
| 2034 | 0 | 0 | 26,416 | 184,211 |
US vs EU, side by side
| US (EIA-858, 2024) | EU (ESA, 2025) | |
|---|---|---|
| Average delivered price (all contracts) | $52.71/lb | $54.7/lb multiannual · $70.33/lb spot |
| Price of newly-set contracts | $86.2/lb (signed 2024) | $69.01/lb (MAC-3) |
| Forward requirements covered by contract | 92% in 2027, falling to 5% by 2033 | 96% max in 2028, falling to 36% by 2034 |
| Annual requirements basis | max anticipated, ~57.6 Mlb U₃O₈e in 2025 | net reactor requirements, avg 9,416 tU/yr 2026–2035 |
Definitions differ — EIA reports maximum anticipated market requirements for US owners and operators of civilian reactors; ESA reports net reactor requirements (after recycling/inventory savings) for EU-27 utilities — so compare shapes, not decimals.
Methodology & sources
US: parsed directly from EIA's Uranium Marketing Annual published tables — Table 12 (requirements & contracted maximums), Table 11 (unfilled requirements), Table S1b (price history) and Table 8 (contracts signed in the data year). “W” (withheld) cells render as absent, never zero. EU: curated verbatim from the Euratom Supply Agency Annual Report 2025 (Annex 1 requirements, Annex 3 prices, Figure 10 coverage rates; cross-checked against the ESA Market Observatory). Both reports are annual; a monthly cron watches for new vintages and raises a drift alarm the day one appears. Prices are what utilities actually paid on delivery — realized weighted averages, not spot-screen quotes and not price-agency indicators. See full methodology.
Cite this page
Using our data in an article or report? Please credit Yellowcake Analytics with a link.
Yellowcake Analytics. "Uranium Coverage Gap (US + EU Utility Requirements)." Yellowcake Analytics, 2026, https://www.yellowcakeanalytics.com/coverage.
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