Production guidance vs delivery
Kazatomprom's repeated guidance cuts are the #1 supply question in uranium — yet nobody tracks sector-wide guidance against delivered actuals with the revision history intact. This tracker does: original guidance → revision → reported actual, per producer and period, every row linked to the originating disclosure. How to compare guidance with actual production →
Boss EnergyBQSSF
| Period | Metric | Guidance | Revised | Actual | Delta | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 (ending 30 Jun 2026) | Drummed U3O8 production, lb (Honeymoon) Cut 14 Apr 2026 after March 2026 rainfall on already-degraded access roads extended disruption, compounded by NIMCIX column 4 and wellfield B6 commissioning delays; the 30 Jul 2026 June-quarter report landed FY26 at 1.41 Mlb drummed, inside the revised 1.40-1.45 Mlb range (C1 A$39/lb, AISC A$61/lb for the year). The Dec 2025 Honeymoon Review separately withdrew the 2021 EFS, hitting expectations from FY27 onward. | 1.6 Mlb (with C1 A$41–45/lb, AISC A$64–70/lb) as of 2025-07 | 1.40–1.45 Mlb as of 2026-04 | 1.41 Mlb drummed (June quarter: 362Klbs) as of 2026-07 | In range −1.1% vs midpoint | source |
| FY2025 (ended 30 Jun 2025) | Drummed U3O8 production, lb (Honeymoon) Maiden production year at the restarted Honeymoon ISR operation beat guidance (reaffirmed 29 Jan 2025 when commercial production was declared), but the 28 Jul 2025 FY26 guidance release simultaneously flagged potential deviations from the 2021 EFS on mineralisation continuity and leachability, triggering the Honeymoon Review. | 850,000 lb (850Klbs) as of 2024-07 | — | 872Klbs (871,607 lb drummed per FY25 remuneration disclosure) as of 2025-07 | Beat guidance +2.5% vs midpoint | source |
CamecoCCJ
| Period | Metric | Guidance | Revised | Actual | Delta | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY2026 | Uranium production, Mlb U3O8 (100% basis) 2026 plan (issued 13 Feb 2026 with FY2025 results) reflects the continuing McArthur River mining-area transition and Cigar Lake extension development to take the mine to 2036. Q2 2026 results (31 Jul 2026) kept the production outlook unchanged (consolidated 19.5-21.5 Mlb, Cameco's share) despite May flooding on the northern Saskatchewan supply route and temporary disruptions at Key Lake, McArthur River and, after quarter-end, Cigar Lake. | McArthur River/Key Lake 14.0–16.5 Mlb; Cigar Lake 17.5–18.0 Mlb (both 100% basis) as of 2026-02 | — | pending | — | source |
| CY2025 | Uranium production, Mlb U3O8 28 Aug 2025 cut cited development delays transitioning the McArthur River mine to new mining areas and slower-than-anticipated ground freezing; Cigar Lake outperformance (+1.1 Mlb vs plan) lifted the final result above revised consolidated guidance. | 18 Mlb (100% basis) at each of McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake as of 2025-02 | McArthur River/Key Lake cut to 14–15 Mlb (100% basis; 9.8–10.5 Mlb share); consolidated guidance of up to 20 Mlb (Cameco's share) as of 2025-08 | 21.0 Mlb (Cameco's share); Cigar Lake 19.1 Mlb and McArthur River/Key Lake 15.1 Mlb (100% basis) as of 2026-02 | Beat guidance +5.0% vs midpoint | source |
| CY2024 | Uranium production, Mlb U3O8 Beat twice-raised guidance on record Key Lake mill output (a world record for any uranium mill), while JV Inkai production (7.8 Mlb, 100% basis) was constrained by sulphuric acid supply issues in Kazakhstan. | 22.4 Mlb (Cameco's share); plan of 18 Mlb (100% basis) at each of McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake as of 2024-02 | up to 23.1 Mlb (Cameco's share), with Key Lake plan raised from 18 to 19 Mlb (100% basis) as of 2024-11 | 23.4 Mlb (Cameco's share); Key Lake milled a record 20.3 Mlb (100% basis) as of 2025-02 | Beat guidance +1.3% vs midpoint | source |
KazatompromNATKY
| Period | Metric | Guidance | Revised | Actual | Delta | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY2026 | U3O8 production, tU (100% basis; attributable also shown) Formal 2026 operational guidance set 2 Feb 2026 within the reduced 29,697 tU nominal level, subject to sulphuric acid availability; YoY growth driven by the JV Budenovskoye ramp-up whose 2024–2026 output is fully committed to the Russian civil nuclear industry under offtake. Reiterated with the 2Q26 operations and trading update / 1H2026 financial results (21 Aug 2026): production and sales volume guidance unchanged; only financial guidance is under review on KZT appreciation and input costs. | 27,500–29,000 tU (100% basis; 71.49–75.39 Mlb); 14,500–15,500 tU attributable as of 2026-02 | — | pending | — | source |
| CY2026 | Nominal licensed production level, tU (100% basis) Announced 22 Aug 2025 with 1H25 results: KAP said the supply-demand balance was not sufficient to incentivise a return to 100% levels, cutting ~5% of world primary supply, most of it at JV Budenovskoye, and flagged it would also exercise its 20% downflex under the new nominal levels. | 32,777 tU (~85 Mlb U3O8) per previous Subsoil Use Agreements as of 2025-08 | 29,697 tU (~77 Mlb U3O8) — a ~3,000 tU (~8 Mlb), roughly 10% reduction as of 2025-08 | pending | Guidance cut (−9.4%) | source |
| CY2025 | U3O8 production, tU (100% basis; attributable also shown) Initial 2025 intention cut ~18% on 23 Aug 2024, driven mainly by JV Budenovskoye construction delays (2025 plan cut from 4,000 tU to 1,300 tU) and continuing sulphuric acid supply uncertainty; actual of 25,839 tU (+11% YoY) landed mid-range per the 4Q25 trading update. | 30,500–31,500 tU (100% basis) initial intention (~100% of Subsoil Use Agreement levels) as of 2023-08 | 25,000–26,500 tU (100% basis); 13,000–14,000 tU attributable as of 2024-08 | 25,839 tU (100% basis); 13,519 tU attributable as of 2026-02 | In range +0.3% vs midpoint | source |
| CY2024 | U3O8 production, tU (100% basis; attributable also shown) 2024 guidance (set 1 Feb 2024) reflected a cut from the planned ~90% of Subsoil Use Agreement levels — flagged 12 Jan 2024 on sulphuric acid shortages and construction delays at new deposits — then raised 1 Aug 2024 after acid volumes were secured; actuals restated in the 4Q25 trading update (Feb 2026). | 21,000–22,500 tU (100% basis); 10,900–11,900 tU attributable as of 2024-02 | 22,500–23,500 tU (100% basis); 11,600–12,600 tU attributable as of 2024-08 | 23,270 tU (100% basis); 12,286 tU attributable as of 2025-02 | In range +1.2% vs midpoint | source |
Lotus ResourcesLTSRF
| Period | Metric | Guidance | Revised | Actual | Delta | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY2026 | U3O8 nameplate production rate, lb/month (Kayelekera ramp-up) Kayelekera restarted in 2025 targeting ~200,000 lb/month by Q2 CY2026, but the ramp-up paused on sulphuric acid plant failures: production since restart totalled 332,100 lb by 30 Jun 2026 (June quarter: 155,900 lb, strongest to date), with acid plant repairs completed and restart targeted early Aug 2026, first Walvis Bay shipment ~Sep 2026 and steady-state ~2.4 Mlbpa now expected late CY2026 - the nameplate-rate target was reached neither in Q2 nor by Sep 2026. | ~200,000 lb/month (~2.4 Mlbpa equivalent) targeted in Q2 CY2026 as of 2026-02 | — | pending | — | source |
Paladin EnergyPALAF
| Period | Metric | Guidance | Revised | Actual | Delta | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 (ending 30 Jun 2026) | U3O8 production, Mlb (Langer Heinrich) Guidance raised 16 Apr 2026 after successful mining fleet mobilisation, improved feed grade and ~91% plant recoveries; the 22 Jul 2026 June-quarter report delivered 4.82 Mlb for FY2026, just above the raised 4.5-4.8 Mlb range, with 4.35 Mlb sold. | 4.0–4.4 Mlb as of 2025-07 | 4.5–4.8 Mlb (raised) as of 2026-04 | 4.82 Mlb (Q4 FY26: 1.23 Mlb) as of 2026-07 | Above range +3.7% vs midpoint | source |
| FY2025 (ended 30 Jun 2025) | U3O8 production, Mlb (Langer Heinrich) 12 Nov 2024 cut followed NamWater supply disruptions and grade variability in stockpiled ore during the restart ramp-up; guidance was withdrawn entirely on 26 Mar 2025 after a one-in-50-year rainfall event halted Langer Heinrich operations. | 4.0–4.5 Mlb as of 2024-06 | 3.0–3.6 Mlb; guidance then fully withdrawn 26 Mar 2025 as of 2024-11 | 3.02 Mlb (Q4 FY25: 993,843 lb) as of 2025-07 | Guidance withdrawn | source |
Peninsula EnergyPENMF
| Period | Metric | Guidance | Revised | Actual | Delta | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY2026 | U3O8 production, Mlbs (Lance) Nov 2024 projection predates the CY2025 ramp-up failure. The Aug 2025 production reset re-based CY2026 to 400-500Klbs, but that forecast was withdrawn following the June 2026 quarter (Q2 2026 production: 13,889 lb) on slower-than-expected wellfield ramp-up; CY2027 guidance of 500-600Klbs was reconfirmed alongside a US$56M funding package. Shares were separately suspended Apr 2026 pending a WA Supreme Court application. | 1.4–1.6 Mlbs as of 2024-08 | 1.1–1.3 Mlbs as of 2024-11 | pending | Guidance withdrawn | source |
| CY2025 | U3O8 production, lb (Lance ramp-up year 1) Cut 15 Nov 2024 after preconditioning delays and header house flows at ~67% of design; all CY2025 guidance was withdrawn and ASX suspended the shares in Apr 2025 when the promised update was not delivered. The Aug 2025 production-reset plan (with a ~US$70M raise) re-based CY2025 to 'up to 50,000 lb'; dried yellowcake production began Sep 2025, but no full-year CY2025 production figure has been published as of Sep 2026. | 0.7–0.9 Mlbs (700,000–900,000 lb) as of 2024-08 | ~600,000 lb, with all other CY2025 guidance withdrawn as of 2024-11 | pending | Guidance withdrawn | source |
Real
Methodology
Curated and source-verified: every row is taken from the producer's own operating updates, quarterly reports or guidance press releases, and links to that disclosure. Figures are quoted verbatim in the company's own units (tU, Mlb U3O8, attributable vs 100% basis…) and never converted between units or bases. Comparisons only ever run within one declared ownership basis — a 100%-basis target is never scored against an own-share actual. Revisions are append-only — a guidance cut adds a revision alongside the original number, it never overwrites it, so the miss history stays intact. The badge states the range outcome (an actual inside the guided range is in range even when it sits below the midpoint) and the % deviation vs the midpoint is shown separately. Withdrawn guidance is labeled withdrawn, never met or missed. Anything ambiguous is left unlabeled rather than guessed. See full methodology.
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