Uranium Price Seasonality
Average calendar-month spot behavior over Aug 2007 – Aug 2026 — which months have historically been strong or weak. Seasonality is a tendency, not a forecast.
Historically strongest: Nov (+3.2% avg) · weakest: Feb (-2.7% avg)
Average monthly spot return
estimated · Yellowcake Composite, month-end resampleyellowcakeanalytics.com
By the numbers
| Month | Avg | Median | Positive years | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +2.5% | +1.4% | 63% | 19 |
| Feb | -2.7% | -2.3% | 32% | 19 |
| Mar | -1.7% | -2.8% | 42% | 19 |
| Apr | +0.0% | -0.2% | 42% | 19 |
| May | -1.0% | -1.6% | 37% | 19 |
| Jun | +0.3% | +0.6% | 58% | 19 |
| Jul | +0.5% | +0.0% | 47% | 19 |
| Aug | +0.2% | +0.7% | 55% | 20 |
| Sep | +0.0% | +0.8% | 53% | 19 |
| Oct | +0.8% | +0.7% | 53% | 19 |
| Nov | +3.2% | +2.4% | 68% | 19 |
| Dec | +0.1% | -0.8% | 37% | 19 |
- Series
- The Yellowcake Composite daily series (2007→, provenance estimated in its blend era), with live-era oracle prints folded in — the same series the spot chart plots.
- Monthly returns
- Each month is its last observation (month-end resample); a month’s return is that month-end vs the prior calendar month’s. Coverage gaps produce no return, and the most recent month is excluded as incomplete.
- Hit rate
- The share of years in which that calendar month closed higher than the prior month-end. N is the number of years observed.
- Not a forecast
- Averages over ~19 years smooth over regime changes (2007 bubble, post-Fukushima decade, 2021→ bull market). A seasonal tendency is context, not a trading signal.
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